Can a Republican win without Values Voters?

At a rally held earlier this week to encourage Governor Schwarzenegger to veto bills that would promote homosexuality in California’s public schools, I made the following statement:

“Our governor is a Republican. We represent what are called ‘values voters.’ No Republican has ever gotten elected in any state without the vote of values voters. No Republican has ever gotten elected in this state without our vote.”

Can a Republican get elected without our vote? There are those who are betting that this is not true.

Dan Walters writes in his Sacramento Bee column:

Schwarzenegger will probably veto some contested measures and sign others. He appears to lean against gay rights measures involving schoolchildren, but toward those that bar discrimination or enhance equality -- short of marriage -- for LGBT Californians in the larger society.

The question, of course, is whether positioning himself in no-man's land and dodging bullets from both sides help or hurt him in his quest for a second term. And all-in-all, it aligns him with the mainstream of voter ambivalence about gay rights.

As much as they may dislike Schwarzenegger's signing SB 1441 and other bills, those on the anti-gay rights side know that were he to lose to Democratic challenger Phil Angelides, the full gay rights agenda would be quickly enacted. Pro-gay rights blocs, meanwhile, are likely to already be committed to Angelides, so the downside political risk for Schwarzenegger is minimal.

Clearly there are those in the leadership of the California Republican Party and the Governor’s campaign who are betting on the fact that conservative voters will side with a candidate they agree with 20-40% of the time over one with whom they will never agree.

I wouldn’t bet on that if I were them. A lot of the votes he received during the Recall came from values voters who did not vote for the more conservative Tom McClintock because they did not believe he could win. And while nobody expected Arnold Schwarzenegger to be a right-wing relgious conservative, there were hopes that he would at least follow the example of Former Governor Pete Wilson.

Wilson was not prolife. Nor was he against the homosexual lifestyle. But he also did not do anything or sign any legislation that would expand or restrict abortion or gay rights. And without going into detail, it is obvious that the same cannot be said of Governor Scwarzenegger.

Many values voters are suffering from buyers remorse. They know that Arnold Schwarzenegger is better than Phil Angelides, but only marginally on the issues that are important to them. And to the most extreme conservatives there is no difference at all. They see this gubinatorial election as a choice between the lesser of two evils. And are thus, not motivated one way or the other.

Governor Schwarzenegger will not win without values voters. And the only way he will our votes is by distinguishing himself rom Phil Angelides on the issues that are important to us. And chief among them in keeping homosexual indoctrination out of our schools.

Governor, we don’t expect you to be perfect. And we have set a pretty low bar for you reach in order to be assured of getting many of our votes. Veto AB 1056, AB 606 and AB 1207 (the reincarnation of AB 866 you vetoed last year) And don’t take us or our votes for granted.

I think values voters have been willing to cut you some slack. However, you are on the verge of pushing their grace too far.